How would you improve Augur? User interviews this week. Hit reply to participate.

This Week

Turbo Update and Next Steps

Relief In Cryptocurrency. Or is it?

Phoenix Suns Went from +6000 to Title Favorites

The NBA Playoff Bracket

MLB’s 7th No-Hitter of the 2021 Season Ties Modern-Day Record

Rivalry Renewed: SF Giants Look to Continue Their NL West Dominance

Augur Turbo

Turbo Update and Next Steps

Turbo is an extension of Augur specifically designed for frequent markets of the same type with fast resolution and fees that are near zero. So sports, of course, made a lot of sense. Not only is it the largest betting market in the world, sports also attracts bettors of all types, whether it be folks looking for entertainment or data modelers looking to arb. Whether they want to bet $10 or $1,000,000.


Augur is a software platform for all types of bets for all types of bettors. This means a much simplified and friction-free user experience, many different types of markets, and an ecosystem that delivers opportunities to it's participants repeatedly.


To that end, the team subscribes to the UX goal of ensuring Turbo is accessible to anyone, anywhere, anytime. This was hindered last week with multiple problems when an interface to blockchain data went down. To remedy the situation, we've added more stability around fetching data from ETH nodes directly (released in v1.0.6). There was also a bug that prevented markets from loading, which was fixed in v1.0.5. We've also seen RPC calls on Polygon hit a max threshold cap. We are looking into ways to handle this while keeping the experience friction-free.


Turbo aims to provide different types of markets for different users. If you know crypto and you like sports, we think these markets will be attractive to you.

  • NBA moneyline, over-under, spread markets are LIVE

  • MLB moneyline, over-under, spread markets are LIVE

  • Crypto price and market cap markets are under TESTING

  • MMA markets are under development


If there are markets you'd like to see, please hit reply and let us know.


Lastly, Augur is an open source software platform that is creating an ecosystem that provides opportunities and entertainment to all participants. This goal fundamentally requires liquidity to support the trading. LP'ing in prediction markets contains two-sided risk where, if the LP is not opinionated, they risk losing their entire position. Impermanent loss is also a risk worth mentioning although the wider crypto community is sufficiently knowledgeable about managing IL. In a prediction market, the LP should ideally move the odds to reflect real events but such knowledge and capital seems to be locked with books outside of the crypto community. Market making is deemed a black art although we think it's not outside the reach of sports fans or modelers. How should the odds change if a player gets injured? Most sports fans have an opinion around this - so why can't they convert that opinion into odds? If they learn how, another avenue of lucrative success will become available to them. In any case, we are working on tools to help folks manage their LP position and will continue to do so. More to come soon.

 

Thank you for reading. We'd love to hear your thoughts. Just reply to this email or leave your feedback here.


Note that NBA and MLB markets are open for trading five days in advance of the game giving LPs time to take positions, which earn 1.50% of open interest as fees. Bettors are free to trade in and out of markets as many times as they want. View Turbo docs for betting or LP'ing on Augur Turbo.

Augur takes no fees. Market creators set their fees, usually around 1.5%.

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Crypto Charts

Chart from Tradingview.com.

Relief In Cryptocurrency. Or is it?

Cryptocurrency market capitalization saw a sharp upswing in the last few days, much to the relief of hodlers everywhere. Off the $1.12T bottom on June 22nd, it reached a high of $1.49T, an increase of 33%.


We watch the ticks with bated breath. The latest high was, after all, a second rally off the lows that hadn't been seen since February of this year. Thankfully, the low was but a long wick that dipped below all others and even then, it was a green wick! What's concerning is that the market cap remains well below the 200EMA, an indicator that tracks the long term price action; and it is encountering some resistance at the 50EMA, which indicates the medium-term price-action. The largest contributor to the crypto market cap, BTC, not only remains below the aforementioned EMAs, the long term price-action is in fact below the medium-term price-action, indicating a bearish outlook.


BTC saw a steep drop off the ATH that stabilized into a consolidation starting May 16th. Just as BTC fell to a local low of $28,800 after making a local high of $41,341, the current rally is likely but a bounce off the local low. While we wish it weren't so, one too many signals have been bearish:

  • long term price action is below the short term price action.

  • the current upswing is well within the range of being a response to the downswing just seven days ago.

  • BTC is currently in a macro downswing.


Not to mention the macro signals:

  • US stimulus package has ended and interest rates are starting to tick up, which usually reigns the spending across the world.

  • Grayscale lock up period is ending for >100,000 Bitcoins, which increases the risk of sell pressure.

  • Small economies like El Salvador have been adopting BTC as a legal tender while developing economies like China have been making anti-crypto moves. Great for long term adoption but there is little here to move the needle in the short term.


Elon Musk deserves a mention as well although it's hard to keep a track of his position - is he against BTC today or for it. All in all, reviewing just the points above, the outlook is more bearish than it is bullish. If new money enters the market, we may see an upswing. An oft-repeated adage is going around financial circles these days, "what goes up must go down"; as is also apparent when looking at the last three crypto bull cycles or rather, looking at the size of the drawdown after the bull cycle.


Will BTC settle above $40,000 by this Friday?

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NBA Futures Odds

Odds provided by BetMGM / Odds table via Vegas Insider [Updated on Sunday, June 27, 7:00 am ET]

Phoenix Suns Went from +6000 to Title Favorites

The Phoenix Suns entered the 2020-21 NBA season at +6000 to win the NBA Finals, and they now stand as the favorite. This impressive turnaround was created by Executive of the Year and three-time NBA champion James Jones, who acquired Chris Paul in November 2020 as a part of a six-player trade that included a first-round selection going to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jones also made the late-season addition of Torrey Craig, whom they received from the Milwaukee Bucks, the Suns’ potential NBA Finals opponent.


Monty Williams, who coached Devin Booker and company to an 8-0 record in the NBA’s bubble regular season last year, has built this Suns team into a juggernaut in the Western Conference. Phoenix would not have been as large of a favorite if Kawhi Leonard was healthy, and the Suns, who have had injury luck on their side, were fortunate with their opponents in the 2021 postseason. The Suns took down the Lakers, 4-2, as Anthony Davis’ groin injury hampered Los Angeles. Then in the Western Conference Semifinals, Phoenix swept the Denver Nuggets, who lost Jamaal Murray for the season in April. Williams has done a masterful job as the team’s head coach in the franchise’s fifth-best regular season all-time. The Suns also became the fifth NBA team all-time to score at least 100 points in nine consecutive postseason victories, and three of the previous four teams to have done that have won the championship.


Ben Simmons to the Trail Blazers?


While 26 teams are watching the conference finals from home, one of those teams has been the subject of rumors that have been swirling about Ben Simmons’ future in Philadelphia. Portland Trail Blazers 29-year-old shooting guard CJ McCollum has reportedly been the player on the other side of these trade talks. McCollum will be entering his ninth season in the NBA in 2021-22 while Simmons just finished his fourth professional year. Simmons, who turns 25 years old on July 20, is expected to be in Philadelphia or Portland to begin the upcoming season, according to Bovada:


Philadelphia 76ers +200

Portland Trail Blazers +350

Washington Wizards +600

San Antonio Spurs +800

Utah Jazz +1000

Minnesota Timberwolves +1100

Indiana Pacers +1100

Toronto Raptors +1100

Chicago Bulls +1100

Oklahoma City Thunder +1100


BetOnline has odds for Simmons’ future team if he is traded, and BetOnline’s current odds favor Simmons elsewhere for the upcoming season (-350) as opposed to him staying in Philadelphia (+225). There should be a lot of interesting movement this offseason, and therefore, Joel Embiid could be a part of a different 76ers duo next season.


Special Odds & Prop Bets provided by Bovada and BetOnline Sportsbook / Odds table via Las Vegas Sports Betting [Bovada and BetOnline updated on Tuesday, June 22]

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NBA PlayOffs 2021

2021 Bracket via NBA.com

[Prior to the games played on Monday, June 28]

The NBA Playoff Bracket

Western Conference Finals: Tyronn Lue’s Clippers Look to Come from Behind Again

(2) Phoenix Suns lead the (4) Los Angeles Clippers, 3-1



FiveThirtyEight prediction: 

Suns move onto the NBA Finals (95%) and win the championship (57%); Clippers third in title ranking (3%)


Remaining Schedule for the Series:

Game 5. Monday, June 28, 9:00 pm ET at Phoenix Suns Arena

Game 6 (if necessary). Wednesday, June 30, 9:00 ET at Staples Center in Los Angeles

Game 7 (if necessary). Friday, July 2, 9:00 ET at Phoenix Suns Arena


Series Update: Masked Devin Booker was masked up by the Los Angeles Clippers defense in Game 3. Although the rising star for the Suns contacted well-known masked player Richard Hamilton for advice prior to Game 3, Booker scored a playoff-low 15 points and Phoenix’s nine-game winning streak came to an end.


The Suns (+105 championship odds) held a 2-0 lead in the series, and according to Elias Sports, they became the 37th conference finals team of 57 up 2-0 to lose the third game on the road. The Clippers (+2200) pushed the pedal to the metal with a 21-3 run in the third quarter en route to the 106-92 victory. Of the previous 56 teams to lead 2-0, 50 won the series, but two of the six losses came in the last three years. Tyronn Lue knows his way around 2-0 playoff comebacks, so the Clippers cannot be counted out. Paul George scored a game-high 27 points and registered 15 rebounds and eight assists in the Game 3 win.


While a new era of tremendously high-scoring games is upon us in the NBA, Game 4 was just the opposite: it was the lowest combined score of the season (84-80) with the fewest combined 3-pointers (nine) and historically bad shooting by the Clippers -- 0-for-12 on shots to tie or take the lead in the final 12 minutes. Deandre Ayton, who has been the most efficient player in playoff history thus far, scored 19 points and grabbed a playoff career-high 22 rebounds in the Suns win. Although the Clippers could not get the job done Saturday at Staples Center, they have the head coach with experience being down three games to one. He led the 2016 Cavaliers to a championship against all odds in the NBA Finals. It does not appear Kawhi Leonard (knee) will be making his way onto the floor for the rest of the series, so it may all rest on George’s shoulders.



Eastern Conference Finals: Hawks’ Chances at First NBA Finals Appearance Since 1961 are Falling


(3) Milwaukee Bucks lead the (5) Atlanta Hawks, 2-1



FiveThirtyEight prediction: Bucks move onto the NBA Finals (89%) and rank second for winning the championship (39%); Hawks fourth in title ranking (2%)


Game 4 of the ECF tips off at 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday, June 29 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta


Game 4 Spread: opened at and currently Bucks -6

Game 4 Moneyline: opened at Bucks -240, Hawks +200; currently Bucks -260, Hawks +210

Game 4 Over / Under: opened at 223.5; currently 221.5


Remaining Schedule for the Series:

Game 5. Thursday, July 1, 9:00 pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee

Game 6 (if necessary). Saturday, July 3, 9:00 pm ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta

Game 7 (if necessary). Monday, July 5, 9:00 pm ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee


Series Update: In Game 1, Trae Young’s playoff career-high in points (48), 11 assists, and seven rebounds led the Hawks (+1400 title odds) to a 116-113 victory at Fiserv Forum. Then, in Game 2, the Bucks (+115) dominated in the paint and on fast breaks, as they won wire to wire, 125-91. Milwaukee fans should be happy to see Giannis Antetokounmpo dominating the key because he is putting up Shaquille O’Neal-like numbers.


He continued playing very well in Game 3 at State Farm Arena, as he scored 33 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. Khris Middleton put up a game-high 38 points, including 20 points in the fourth quarter, and also brought down 11 rebounds. Young scored 35 points in 39 minutes and left briefly with an ankle injury. The hope is that he can be healthy for the remainder of the series, especially after seeing the Hawks score just 17 points in the fourth quarter on Sunday. The all-important third game of the series went to the Bucks, and they covered the 4.5-point spread with the 113-102 victory. Milwaukee’s win in Atlanta could mean that this will be a short series.

NBA PlayOff Predictions

NBA Predictions via FiveThirtyEight prior to the games on Monday, June 28

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MLB’s 7th No-Hitter of the 2021 Season Ties Modern-Day Record

Rob Manfred has led the foreign-substance crackdown midway through the 2021 season, and it did not stop the Chicago Cubs (+4000 to win the World Series, William Hill), who pitched a combined no-hitter last week against the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers (+360). The Cubs won, 4-0, as Zach Davies defeated Walker Buehler (+3500 to win the National League Cy Young; eighth overall), who was unbeatable in the first few months of the season. With Chicago’s no-hitter, MLB has tied the modern-day record of seven no-hitters -- also accomplished in 1990, 1991, 2012, and 2015 -- and is one away from the all-time record of eight, which occurred in 1884.


Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola Also Make History

Meanwhile, we have some new pitchers in the record books for solo accomplishments. San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish (+1800 NL Cy Young odds; tied for fifth overall) became the fastest pitcher in MLB history to 1,500 strikeouts. It took him just 197 games. Over on the East Coast, Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola (+10000 NL Cy Young odds) tied Hall of Famer Tom Seaver’s record for the most consecutive strikeouts in a game with 10. Coincidentally, Nola accomplished the feat against the New York Mets, which was Seaver’s team when he struck out 10 batters in a row in 1970.


Pete Alonso to Defend His Home Run Derby Crown

As we approach MLB’s All-Star weekend, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has entered his name into the 2021 Home Run Derby on July 12 at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. Alonso (+15000 to win NL MVP; opened season at +4500) has not been mashing the ball like he did in his rookie 2019 season when he won the derby, but he is the second player to commit to this year’s exhibition. Unfortunately, Fernando Tatís Jr., who made Padres history with three home runs in a game last week, declined participation in the derby. Two-way slugger Shohei Ohtani continues to launch home runs, as he prepares for his first derby. Derby odds should be available when the full field is revealed.



Trey Mancini’s Heartwarming Story Continues as He Will Participate in Derby


Not everyone may be familiar with the backstory of Baltimore Orioles first baseman and designated hitter Trey Mancini, but it sure will tug at your heartstrings. In March 2020, Mancini was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer. He fought and beat cancer by November 2020. He returned to baseball in 2021, and he received a standing ovation at

Oriole Park at Camden Yards for his first at-bat of the season.


Oriole Park at Camden Yards for his first at-bat of the season. Mancini, who hit a career-high 35 home runs in 2019, has a chance at another 30-home run season this year. The 29-year-old cancer survivor, who one year ago did not know if he would be playing baseball ever again, was invited to the Home Run Derby by MLB, and he graciously accepted. Mancini will be participating in the 2021 derby.

MLB 2021 Odds

Odds provided by BetMGM / Odds table via Vegas Insider [Team Futures updated on Friday, June 11, 9:00 am ET; MVP Futures updated on Friday, June 18]

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Rivalry Renewed: SF Giants Look to Continue Their NL West Dominance

MLB Futures Odds

Team Futures Odds table via Covers; MVP and Cy Young Futures via the Covers Line (average of odds from multiple sportsbooks)

[Team and Cy Young Futures updated on Sunday, June 27; MVP Futures updated on Wednesday, June 23]

The Dodgers (+360 World Series odds) looked strong against the Cubs over the weekend after being no-hit, as Los Angeles continues to fight for playoff position while looking up at the division-leading San Francisco Giants (+2200; tied for 10th overall). While many thought this Giants team would not be able to keep up the strong pace, Gabe Kapler’s squad continues to play tremendous baseball. San Francisco’s MLB-best record is being threatened by the scorching Houston Astros (+800; tied for fourth overall), who have an MLB-best seven finalists eligible to start the 2021 All-Star Game. However, the Giants have not lost more than 10 games in a month this season, and they are the first MLB team to 50 wins in 2021.


Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49, 0.77) and Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51, 0.92) are the probable pitchers for this battle between bitter rivals:

MLB Predictions

MLB Prediction (SF @ LAD) via FiveThirtyEight

[Prediction updated Monday, June 28]

Gausman leads the majors in ERA and is among the league leaders in WHIP, strikeouts, home runs per nine innings, and several metrics like ERA+ and fielding independent pitching. On May 30, Gausman had one of his best starts of the season, as he showed ultimate efficiency: he threw six innings of shutout baseball with seven strikeouts. He allowed just two hits and did not have any walks in 72 pitches in the victory against the Dodgers.


Mookie Betts, who did not play in that 4-0 Dodgers loss to Gausman and the Giants earlier in the season, has hit 15-for-43 (.349/.404/.581) with three home runs in his career against the former Baltimore Orioles starter. It appears as if FiveThirtyEight is thinking Betts and company should be able to get to Gausman or the top-ranked Giants bullpen in Tuesday’s contest.


In terms of Dodgers pitching, Buehler was a part of the team’s recent four-game losing streak that included being on the unfortunate end of the Cubs’ 17th no-hitter in franchise history. Buehler, who has a lot of success against the Giants (43 career innings: 2.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 45 strikeouts), will look to bounce back while San Francisco is hoping to continue its reign at the top of the NL West.

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